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Markets and numbers
The state of the market, how to read a forecast without being misled, and what changes from one region to the next.
- 1How to read a market forecast without being misled by oneThree reputable firms size this market at figures that differ widely, yet agree on how fast it grows. Why both are true, and how to use a forecast for what it is actually good for.
- Before quoting a market size, ask what is counted: carrier fees passed through, which product categories, and whether it is spend or revenue.
- Trust direction more than size. Firms that disagree on size by billions agree this market grows in the low-to-mid teens yearly.
- For your own decision, build a bottom-up estimate: events that trigger messages, times messages per event, times your real price.
- 2The state of business messaging, 2026Four changes that landed between 2024 and 2026 (per-message WhatsApp billing, stricter sender registration, RCS on both major phone platforms, and AI disclosure) and what each one does to a programme built before them.
- WhatsApp now bills per delivered template message, not per conversation. Cost models from before July 2025 need redoing.
- Sender registration is now a precondition in more countries: unregistered traffic is increasingly blocked, not just slowed down.
- RCS reaches both major phone platforms, and in the EU automated chats must now say they are AI.
- 3What the analysts disagree about, and why it is the useful partThree firms, three market sizes, one category. Reading the disagreement tells you more about your own decision than any single number does.
- Published 2026 sizes for the CPaaS market range from about US$17 billion to over US$34 billion. None is necessarily wrong.
- The gap comes from definitions: whether operator fees count, which products are included, and spend versus revenue.
- Trust the direction the firms agree on, sustained double-digit growth, more than any single total.
- 4GSMA on RCS, encryption and the future of operator messagingA guide to the GSMA's own primary material on where operator-run messaging is heading, the standards body's account rather than a vendor's summary of it, and how to read it.
- The GSMA, the mobile operators' association, publishes the primary material on RCS and the mobile industry. Read it before vendor summaries.
- A published standard is not a feature on your customers' phones. Operators and app makers must still deploy it, market by market.
- Operator figures exclude over-the-top apps like WhatsApp. Read the two as separate accounts and never add them up.
- 5Regional messaging in the Gulf: why global platforms can underperform hereA regional case study: four structural features of Gulf markets that a globally designed product does not automatically inherit, and that can decide outcomes more than software quality does.
- In several Gulf states, business SMS must go through licensed parties and use pre-approved sender names, so plan registration time before launch.
- Promotional and service messages are classified separately and should not share a sender name. Model that from the start.
- An Arabic SMS fits 70 characters per segment versus 160 for English, so budget and test with real Arabic text.
- 6Arabic-first is not translationUsing Arabic as the worked example: direction, numerals, names, SMS encoding and register. A localised product differs from a translated one within the first minute — and the same checks apply to any right-to-left or non-Latin-script audience.
- Build layouts with start and end logical properties from day one, so right-to-left languages mirror without a second stylesheet.
- Write SMS for Arabic and other non-Latin scripts to the 70-character Unicode limit, and budget for it.
- Have a native speaker choose numerals and register for each context, then apply those choices consistently everywhere.