--- title: "What the analysts disagree about, and why it is the useful part" summary: "Three firms, three market sizes, one category. Reading the disagreement tells you more about your own decision than any single number does." canonical: https://cpaas.co/en/learn/what-analysts-disagree-about kind: research depth: advanced origin: original published: 2026-07-11T16:26:18.899Z updated: 2026-10-14T16:26:19.583Z topics: ["Market", "Procurement", "Analytics"] language: en --- # What the analysts disagree about, and why it is the useful part ## Why this matters Business cases, investor decks and vendor pitches often open with "the CPaaS market is worth X billion dollars". Depending on which analyst firm is quoted, X can be roughly half or double another firm's figure for the same year. If you are building a budget, sizing an opportunity or judging a vendor's claims, you need to know why, and which number fits your question. This piece compares three published estimates and explains where they diverge. It builds on [reading a market forecast](/en/learn/reading-a-market-forecast). > **Interactive figure — market-scope.** Each bar is an estimate as first published. None is wrong; they are answering different questions. The section below adds the most recent figures. > Available at https://cpaas.co/en/learn/what-analysts-disagree-about ## The published positions **Juniper Research** said in April 2025 that CPaaS revenue would exceed US$34 billion in 2026, up from about US$30 billion in 2025. **Mordor Intelligence** sizes the market at US$21.27 billion in 2026, reaching US$41.05 billion by 2031, a compound annual growth rate of about 14%. **Gartner** forecast in 2025 that spending would grow from US$15.7 billion in 2025 to US$27.4 billion by 2029, about 14% a year. In its 2026 Magic Quadrant for CPaaS, as summarised by CX Today, Gartner put 2025 at US$14.88 billion (9.3% growth in constant currency) and forecast about US$17.03 billion for 2026. So the 2026 figures span roughly US$17 billion to over US$34 billion: about a factor of two between the highest and the lowest. ```diagram:bars # CPaaS market size for 2026, as published Juniper Research | 34 | Over US$34bn in 2026, up from about US$30bn in 2025 (published April 2025) Mordor Intelligence | 21.27 | US$21.27bn in 2026, reaching US$41.05bn by 2031 Gartner | 17.03 | About US$17.03bn forecast for 2026, after US$14.88bn in 2025 (2026 Magic Quadrant) > Roughly a 2× spread between the highest and lowest. That gap is mostly definitional, not a quality difference between the firms. ``` Notice one more thing: Gartner's later figure for 2025 (US$14.88 billion) is below its own earlier forecast for 2025 (US$15.7 billion). Forecasts get revised as actual results come in. A figure quoted without its publication date may already have been superseded by the publisher itself. ```diagram:stats # Gartner on 2025, twice US$15.7bn | Forecast for 2025 | Published in 2025 US$14.88bn | Figure for 2025 | In the 2026 Magic Quadrant, as summarised by CX Today > The same firm, the same year, revised downward as results came in. Quote a figure with its publication date. ``` ## Where the divergence comes from | Decision each firm makes | Choice that gives a bigger number | Choice that gives a smaller number | |---|---|---| | Operator fees passed through | Count the full price including fees paid on to mobile operators | Count only the platform's own revenue | | Category boundary | Include contact-centre software, email, video SDKs, verification | Only programmable messaging and voice APIs | | Spend or revenue | Measure what buyers spend | Measure what vendors earn | | Geography and segments | All regions, all customer sizes | Selected regions or segments | | Base year and update date | Older, optimistic base compounded forward | Recent actuals | **Operator pass-through** is probably the largest single factor. Much of the price of a business text message is a fee the platform collects and passes on to the mobile operator. Count gross and the market looks very large; count net platform revenue and it is much smaller. **Category boundaries** matter next. Whether contact-centre software, email delivery, video SDKs and verification services sit inside or outside "CPaaS" changes the total materially, and there is no industry-standard answer. **Spend versus revenue** are measured from opposite directions and diverge systematically. ```diagram:blocks # What each firm had to decide before counting anything Carrier pass-through | Whether the fee a platform collects and hands to an operator is market revenue. Including it raises the number substantially. Category boundary | Is a contact-centre suite CPaaS? Is email delivery? Is a video SDK? Each line drawn is a different market. Spend or revenue | Buyer-side spending and vendor-side revenue are different quantities and diverge systematically. Geography and segment | Which regions and which customer sizes are inside the count at all. Forecast base year | A different starting point compounds into a very different figure five years out. > Five decisions, each with two or three defensible answers. That is enough to produce every figure above without anyone being careless. ``` ## The agreement is the signal All three firms independently describe sustained double-digit growth. That agreement, across different definitions and methods, is a stronger finding than any of the individual totals. When independent methods disagree on size but agree on direction, the direction is the robust result. ## How to use this in a decision **Never quote a single figure without its scope and date.** "The CPaaS market is $34 billion" is not a fact; it is a fact with its conditions removed. **Match the figure to your question.** Sizing your addressable revenue as a platform? Net revenue is the relevant number. Sizing what enterprises spend on this capability? Gross spending is. **Be wary of any deck that shows only the largest number.** Not because it is dishonest (the number is published and real) but because the selection tells you what the deck is for. ```diagram:decision # Which figure fits your question? Are you sizing your addressable revenue as a platform? | Net platform revenue is the relevant number | Sizing what enterprises spend on the capability: gross spending is > Either way, quote it with its scope and its date. ``` ## The methodological lesson, which generalises This pattern recurs across the field. Deliverability rates, containment rates, engagement benchmarks: wide published ranges usually indicate unstable definitions rather than genuinely variable performance. When you meet a benchmark with a wide range, the first question is not "which end am I at?" It is **"what are they counting?"**, and the answer is often that they are counting different things under the same name. A source that cannot tell you what had to be decided before its number existed has published a number, not a finding. ## What to take away Three firms, one market, roughly a 2× spread, and no error. Read the agreement rather than the level, cite the boundary and the date alongside the number, and treat any figure whose method is not available as decoration. ## Where to go next - [GSMA on RCS, encryption and the future of operator messaging](/en/learn/the-mobile-economy-a2p): how to read an industry body's own figures. - [Regional messaging in the Gulf](/en/learn/regional-messaging-in-the-gulf): why a global number tells you little about a specific region. ## Sources [^1]: [Forecast Analysis: Communications Platform as a Service, Worldwide](https://www.gartner.com/en/documents/6565602) — Gartner [^2]: [Market Share Analysis: Communications Platform as a Service, Worldwide, 2024](https://www.gartner.com/en/documents/6730334) — Gartner [^3]: [Gartner Magic Quadrant for Communications Platform as a Service (CPaaS) 2026: The Rundown](https://www.cxtoday.com/service-management-connectivity/gartner-magic-quadrant-cpaas-2026/) — CX Today, 2026 [^4]: [CPaaS Market Research Report: Size, Share, Trends 2025-29](https://www.juniperresearch.com/research/telecoms-connectivity/communication-services/cpaas-research-report/) — Juniper Research [^5]: [Communication Platform-as-a-Service (CPaaS) Market Size & Share Analysis (2026 - 2031)](https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/communication-platform-as-a-service-cpaas-market/market-size) — Mordor Intelligence --- Published by the company behind five products in this category. Those products appear in this site's directory alongside competitors under the same published criteria and are labelled as its own. Editorial content does not recommend them.