--- title: "How to read a market forecast without being misled by one" summary: "Three reputable firms size this market at figures that differ widely, yet agree on how fast it grows. Why both are true, and how to use a forecast for what it is actually good for." canonical: https://cpaas.co/en/learn/reading-a-market-forecast kind: explainer depth: foundation origin: original published: 2026-09-24T16:26:18.899Z updated: 2026-10-14T16:26:19.430Z topics: ["Market", "Procurement", "Fundamentals"] language: en --- # How to read a market forecast without being misled by one Almost every vendor presentation in this category opens with a market-size figure. Here is how to read one. > **Interactive figure — market-scope.** Switch between the three published estimates. The bars are what each firm reports; the gap between them is what nobody puts on a slide. > Available at https://cpaas.co/en/learn/reading-a-market-forecast ## The numbers disagree As published: - **Juniper Research** forecast CPaaS revenue growing 13% in 2026 to about **US$34 billion**, up from about US$30 billion in 2025. - **Gartner** forecast CPaaS spending of **US$15.7 billion in 2025**, rising to US$27.4 billion by 2029 — about 14% a year. (Its 2026 update revised 2025 down to about US$14.9 billion; see [what the analysts disagree about](/en/learn/what-analysts-disagree-about).) - **Mordor Intelligence** sizes the market at **US$21.27 billion in 2026**, reaching US$41.05 billion by 2031 — also about 14% a year. ```diagram:bars # The same market, as published Juniper Research | 34 | About US$34bn in 2026, up from about US$30bn in 2025 Mordor Intelligence | 21.3 | US$21.27bn in 2026, reaching US$41.05bn by 2031 Gartner | 15.7 | US$15.7bn in 2025, growing to US$27.4bn by 2029 > Figures as each firm publishes them (Gartner's is for 2025). The gap is mostly about definitions — chiefly whether carrier fees passed through a platform are counted. ``` These are serious firms. The spread is not sloppiness. Notice the other thing: they disagree on size by billions of dollars, yet **agree on growth** of roughly 13–14% a year. That pattern is the most useful thing in the slide. ```diagram:stats # Where the three agree: growth 13% | Juniper Research | Growth in 2026 About 14% | Gartner | A year, 2025 to 2029 About 14% | Mordor Intelligence | A year, 2026 to 2031 > Billions of dollars apart on size; roughly 13–14% a year on growth, all three. ``` ## Three terms in plain words - **Pass-through fees:** the part of a message's price that the platform collects and hands to a mobile operator or to Meta. The platform never keeps it. - **CAGR (compound annual growth rate):** the steady yearly growth rate that would take the market from the start figure to the end figure. - **Base year:** the year the forecast starts from. If that figure is itself an estimate, every later year inherits its error. ## What moves a number by a factor of two **Pass-through fees.** Count operator fees and the market looks very large; count only what platforms keep, and it is much smaller. Both are defensible; they answer different questions. **Where the boundary sits.** Is a contact-centre suite CPaaS? Email delivery? A video SDK? Each firm draws the line differently, and each line is a different market. **Spend versus revenue.** What buyers spend and what vendors book diverge, because one includes things the other does not. ```diagram:layers # Where each firm draws the line What platforms keep | Count only this and the market is much smaller Pass-through fees | Operator and Meta fees collected and handed on — count them and the market looks very large Adjacent categories | Contact-centre suites, email delivery, video SDKs — each line drawn is a different market > Both of the first two are defensible; they answer different questions. Spend versus revenue moves the figure again. ``` ## Questions to ask of any figure 1. **What is inside it?** If a presentation cannot say whether pass-through fees are included, the figure is decoration. 2. **What is the unit?** Revenue, spend, messages, seats and "market opportunity" are five different things. Slides switch between them without saying so. 3. **Is the base year actual or estimated?** A five-year projection from an estimated base is an opinion with a chart attached. 4. **Which population?** A global total says little about whether your segment, in your region, is growing. 5. **Is the growth rate for the whole, or for its fastest part?** A common, usually innocent, sleight of hand: measuring the fastest-growing segment and applying it to the whole category. 6. **What is it being used to argue?** A growth number in a sales deck is there to make a purchase feel inevitable. That is not a reason to disbelieve it — just to notice the work it is doing. ## What forecasts are good for Direction and rough scale. When firms with different methods agree on direction, that is a genuine signal. Forecasts can also tell you whether a category is consolidating (fewer, bigger players) or fragmenting. What they cannot tell you is whether *you* should buy, build or do nothing. None of them modelled your volumes, your countries or your costs. Use forecasts to understand the weather, not to decide what to wear. ## Build your own number The figure you actually need is your volume, price and cost — and you can work it out from things you already know. > **Interactive figure — message-budget.** Start from the illustrative shop below, then put in your own events, channel mix and script. The output is volume and billable units — multiply by the price you were quoted. > Available at https://cpaas.co/en/learn/reading-a-market-forecast An illustrative example for an online shop: | Step | Example | |---|---| | Events that trigger a message | 40,000 orders a month | | Messages per event | 3 (confirmation, dispatch, delivery) | | Monthly messages | 120,000 | | Adjust for channel and country | e.g. share on SMS vs WhatsApp; SMS segments double for messages in non-Latin scripts | | Multiply by your quoted price | Your real budget line | Add other triggers — appointment reminders, renewals, support conversations — the same way. That number is worth more than any published total because it is about you. Then use the published forecasts for a sanity check on direction. ## Where to go next - [The state of business messaging in 2026](/en/learn/the-state-of-business-messaging-2026) — the next step in this track. - [What analysts disagree about](/en/learn/what-analysts-disagree-about) — the deeper look at methods. - [What CPaaS actually is](/en/learn/what-cpaas-actually-is) — why pass-through fees are so large. ## Sources [^1]: [Forecast Analysis: Communications Platform as a Service, Worldwide](https://www.gartner.com/en/documents/6565602) — Gartner, 2025 [^2]: [CPaaS Market Research Report: Size, Share, Trends 2025-29](https://www.juniperresearch.com/research/telecoms-connectivity/communication-services/cpaas-research-report/) — Juniper Research, April 2025 [^3]: [Communication Platform-as-a-Service Market](https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/communication-platform-as-a-service-cpaas-market) — Mordor Intelligence, January 2026 --- Published by the company behind five products in this category. 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